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FIDE Chess.com Grand Swiss

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FIDE Chess.com Grand Swiss kicks off today. We got the draw of the 1st round and naturally we cannot deny ourselves the pleasure to predict the results.
Of course this tournament is personal, but nothing prohibits an assessment of the achievements of individual federations. This question is quite complicated, but even a long road begins with the first step. So.
It is reasonable to use the FIDE rating as an estimate of the strength of rivals at the moment. The simplest thing is to predict a victory for someone whose rating is higher. But in order not to simplify the problem at all, we accepted that if the rating differs by less than 100 points, then a tie is supposed. The color is ignored.
A total of 154 participants in the tournament and, accordingly, in the 1st round, 77 games are played. Draws are assumed to be 17. This will be our first prediction.

Evaluation of the performance of each participant will be determined by RELATIVE POINTS or "E-rating"

Evaluation of the performance of each "team" - representatives of one chess federation is carried out WITHOUT accounting for the games played among themselves.

Setting up a team or "federal rating" "F-rating" is carried out in such a way that the LEVEL (STRENGTH) indicator of the entire team (for example,% of points scored) and REPRESENTATION (for example, the number of participants from a given federation) have the same effect on the "F-rating)

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So, the tournament has started and you can build mathematical models. Of course, there is still very little data, only 77 games, but you can start. First of all, predictions. Let's start with the simplest - we use the FIDE rating for predictions. Whose rating at the start is greater - he must win. How much more, what color is who plays, what is the role of the color - for now, all this is omitted.
The result of the game is a draw victory or a defeat.
The result of the forecast is also a victory, a draw or a defeat.
Thus, we need to fill out a 3x3 table. Strictly speaking, it would be necessary to fill out two such tables - for white and for black. But since they are uniquely related, we will consider it only from the side of white

http://s8.uploads.ru/hYAoS.png

In the rows of the table are the results of the parties. The columns show the correlation of forces (ratings). Since there are no participants with the same rating in this tournament, naturally the column B = Filled with zeros. In this case, we seem to assume that all parties will end in the victory of one of the rivals

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For those who are interested in the E-rating, I remind you


                  Sum of E-ratings of defeated opponent
E-rating =   --------------------------------------------
                         Number of own losses.

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11 Round 1-32 chess players according to the E-rating

http://sj.uploads.im/t/4Lqcp.png

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11 Round 32-64 chess players according to the E-rating

[ http://sk.uploads.im/t/Qb8Fk.png

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11 Round 65-100 chess players according to the E-rating

http://sk.uploads.im/t/rDCjA.png

Last edited by E-not (2019-10-22 06:29:13)

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7

11 Round

The “team” standings in a personal tournament appear to be of interest to approximately 80% of fans (according to a poll of 1500) on Chess Video Plus. Well, as you know, demand creates supply. F-rating will help us figure out who is who in the team event

http://sj.uploads.im/t/U29NM.png

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11 Round

Team classification is certainly interesting. But the devil is hiding in the details. Therefore, I think it’s interesting to see how representatives of individual federations play with each other. Win = 3 Loss -= 1 Draw = 2

Pink color - more points
Green is Equality
Blue color - less points

http://sk.uploads.im/t/uUQEo.png

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Any chess tournament ends with an award. Presentation of prizes. Even in a school tournament, they are awarded with applause, chocolates and diplomas. It just so happened, and rightly so. And here a lot depends on how to arrange the participants, how to determine the occupied places.

We have the opportunity to compare several ranking systems. One of them is officinal, the basis of which is ABSOLUTE GLASSES. Since this system is too coarse, additional indicators (crutches) are invented. All of them are purely empirical - the number of victories, the number of parties in black, etc. others with a touch of mathematics - Buchholtz coefficient, Berger coefficient ... The application order is arbitrary, empirical ...

Other system - E-rating.
It is defined as the sum of the E-ratings of defeated rivals divided by the number of your defeats.

The quality, fairness of a particular system is determined by the number of "errors" in the final arrangement. Mistakes - these are cases when the lower standing in the final arrangement triumphs over the higher.

Prizes: 1st place - $ 70,000, 2 - $ 50,000, 3 - $ 40,000, 4 - $ 35,000, 5 - $ 30,000, 6 - $ 25,000, 7 - $ 20,000, 8 - $ 16,000, 9 - $ 13,000, 10 - $ 11,000, 11-15 - $ 8000 , 16-20 - $ 5000, 21-25 - $ 3000, 26-30 - $ 2000.

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Russian Ministry of Health warns !!

"Counting money in someone else's pockets is not good, and in a decent society it is not accepted. This is the case for scammers and crooks and bad guys."

But, this is an interesting thing ... Man is not an angel ... Alas for us ...

http://sj.uploads.im/t/C7ruL.png

Only 53 thousand dollars went aside, that is, went to those who were not on the list of 30 at the start

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Having paid tribute to the official ranking system (determining places) Let's see what would have happened if the tournament had used the E-rating.

http://sk.uploads.im/t/8Ov7A.png

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Fabiano Caruana showed the highest level at the Big Swiss FIDE. But the primitive official ranking system assigned him only the second place.

http://sk.uploads.im/t/tT83J.png

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Why is the official ranking system wrong? Here is an illustration

http://sk.uploads.im/t/GOFSQ.png

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The big Swiss FIDE is over, here are some of its results. The participants who made the most progress. This indicator was determined as follows

Progress = (Sno - Ðíê Å) / (S no + Ðíê Å)

http://sk.uploads.im/t/OVxbp.png

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The big Swiss FIDE is over, here are some of its results.
The participants did not live up to their expectations. This indicator was determined as follows

Progress = (Sno - Ðíê Å) / (S no + Ðíê Å)

http://sk.uploads.im/t/4cMmt.png

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Team India

E-Rating

http://sk.uploads.im/t/FnSHY.png

Errors

http://sj.uploads.im/t/jbrQV.png

Progress

http://sk.uploads.im/t/I9Ny4.png

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Team Russia

http://sj.uploads.im/t/jdnza.png

http://sk.uploads.im/t/y7fNV.png

http://sk.uploads.im/t/3Ti7V.png

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Team USA

http://sj.uploads.im/t/6nr72.png

http://sk.uploads.im/t/9wp6r.png

http://sk.uploads.im/t/SHrYc.png

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